PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x3E4a072Bf427421A34a9b085c0A8796c7Da7DCed-1730836150436

0x3e4a072bf427421a34a9b085c0a8796c7da7dced

Realised P&L
$500.84
Volume
$9.7k
Markets traded
91
Open portfolio
$2.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.2%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded91
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes0.5890.745$2.4k+$494.55
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? · Yes0.1780.970$110.15+$89.89
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? · No0.9100.990$33.97+$2.75
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? · Yes0.2310.019$3.14$33.97
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? · Yes0.6030.000$0.00$8.37
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00$6.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3310.000$0.00$58.87
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.5700.000$0.00$1.00
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00$2.64
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland · Finland0.3590.000$0.00$10.06
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? · Yes0.4800.000$0.00$2.88
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes0.1420.000$0.00$10.00
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw? · Yes0.2600.000$0.00$5.00
Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes0.0570.000$0.00$3.18
Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes0.1820.000$0.00$3.83

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 08:47Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.77$23.10
09-13 13:04Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?SELL0.004$0.13
09-13 13:03Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?SELL0.005$0.05
09-11 08:00Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?SELL0.983$20.35
09-10 10:32Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.77$8.61
09-10 10:32Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.77$61.52
09-04 04:18Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.79$55.30
08-30 09:42Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.79$42.66
08-23 13:07Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.73$3.65
08-22 17:18Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?BUY0.91$50.05
08-22 17:17Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.76$45.60
08-16 08:20Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?BUY0.7$147.00
08-09 08:00Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?BUY0.231$1.83
08-09 07:59Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?BUY0.23$1.73
08-09 07:59Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?BUY0.19$9.50