0x3df133fb59d884f6e521da8d6c2f091790cea7ed
0x3df133fb59d884f6e521da8d6c2f091790cea7ed
- Realised P&L
- $-0.22
- Volume
- $470.00
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $6.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.590 | 0.860 | $2.04 | +$0.64 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 in September? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.680 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.680 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September? · No | 0.770 | 0.730 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.715 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.58at 0.430Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$9.75at 0.512Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
- +$9.36at 0.522Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$4.34at 0.701Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$4.14at 0.710Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 21:09 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 12:39 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $190 in September? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:17 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 19:59 | Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" 5+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.7799999804 | $4.78 |
| 09-08 12:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.7099999549 | $1.89 |
| 08-29 22:23 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999158 | $1.23 |
| 08-19 06:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 08-16 08:34 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 08-15 06:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 18:08 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.7899999916 | $5.67 |
| 08-13 05:50 | Will Trump say "Hottest" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 21:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999638 | $10.00 |
| 08-12 21:11 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | BUY | 0.5899999157 | $1.40 |
| 08-11 12:39 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |