0x3DDbbf4583497EB6F07EE198F7f23Bf4F8ab4eeE-1764794152206
0x3ddbbf4583497eb6f07ee198f7f23bf4f8ab4eee
- Realised P&L
- $-82.65
- Volume
- $87.3k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $81.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.315 | $60.47 | −$35.51 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? · Yes | 0.818 | 0.128 | $15.24 | −$82.51 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $6.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$72.99 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.76 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.54 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.94 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.95 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$145.80at 0.050US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$62.39at 0.024Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January?
- +$42.26at 0.429Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$37.70at 0.134Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?
- +$35.09at 0.020Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 10:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? | BUY | 0.5 | $95.98 |
| 09-22 06:39 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September? | SELL | 0.94 | $72.57 |
| 09-21 20:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.7272894979 | $56.16 |
| 09-20 19:26 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.8179999989 | $97.75 |
| 09-08 13:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | SELL | 0.6754064187 | $135.11 |
| 09-03 17:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | BUY | 0.479999999 | $96.02 |
| 07-19 22:25 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.129999991 | $12.00 |
| 07-19 21:19 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.693 | $13.08 |
| 07-19 19:38 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5959999864 | $11.25 |
| 07-14 20:36 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.025 | $8.54 |
| 07-07 21:52 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.05 | $9.68 |
| 07-07 21:51 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.0599999944 | $9.67 |
| 07-07 18:01 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.954 | $77.75 |
| 07-07 17:51 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? | SELL | 0.65 | $48.44 |
| 07-07 17:42 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1299999893 | $9.69 |