PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695

0x3d84c9478f783c950b6e3259072fa706cc66086b

Realised P&L
$16.2k
Volume
$907.1k
Markets traded
29
Open portfolio
$64.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded29
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample19 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1220.123$47.0k+$344.03
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2580.154$14.9k−$10.0k
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0470.126$3.0k+$1.9k
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? · No0.0700.000$0.00−$60.00
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? · Yes0.0140.000$0.00−$937.89
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes0.2580.000$0.00−$1000.00
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? · Yes0.1410.000$0.00−$3.0k
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? · No0.0270.000$0.00−$999.98
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? · No0.0910.000$0.00−$999.99
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00−$2.9k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 01:38Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0724186717$305.08
09-19 20:24Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.076090345$491.48
09-14 18:47Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0761897405$250.34
09-13 19:36Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.073$443.10
09-12 16:46Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0761927824$138.33
09-11 06:07Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0775837261$203.61
09-07 20:25Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0740287823$89.17
09-05 12:11Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.07$130.30
08-31 13:07Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0849112035$1.2k
08-30 22:57Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0747173193$145.70
08-28 11:19Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.087$489.31
08-25 08:46Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.086$116.20
08-24 06:29Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.0837236993$739.39
08-23 05:54Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.076$268.04
08-21 02:27Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.085$782.18