0x3D84c9478F783C950B6E3259072FA706cC66086B-1750353270695
0x3d84c9478f783c950b6e3259072fa706cc66086b
- Realised P&L
- $16.2k
- Volume
- $907.1k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $64.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.123 | $47.0k | +$344.03 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.154 | $14.9k | −$10.0k |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.126 | $3.0k | +$1.9k |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 20? · No | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$937.89 |
| Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| Major cyberattack on Iran in June? · No | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.98 |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 19? · No | 0.091 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$999.99 |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.9kat 0.532Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
- +$5.2kat 0.634Will France win on 2026-07-09?
- +$4.2kat 0.225Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
- +$1.7kat 0.884Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
- +$1.3kat 0.839Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 01:38 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0724186717 | $305.08 |
| 09-19 20:24 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.076090345 | $491.48 |
| 09-14 18:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0761897405 | $250.34 |
| 09-13 19:36 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.073 | $443.10 |
| 09-12 16:46 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0761927824 | $138.33 |
| 09-11 06:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0775837261 | $203.61 |
| 09-07 20:25 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0740287823 | $89.17 |
| 09-05 12:11 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.07 | $130.30 |
| 08-31 13:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0849112035 | $1.2k |
| 08-30 22:57 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0747173193 | $145.70 |
| 08-28 11:19 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.087 | $489.31 |
| 08-25 08:46 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.086 | $116.20 |
| 08-24 06:29 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0837236993 | $739.39 |
| 08-23 05:54 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.076 | $268.04 |
| 08-21 02:27 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.085 | $782.18 |