0x3d7d1085e81791E4bEEa8A90BB9bED5938C9CBE3-1772315066845
0x3d7d1085e81791e4beea8a90bb9bed5938c9cbe3
- Realised P&L
- $-187.82
- Volume
- $77.2k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $43.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.048 | 0.177 | $25.98 | +$18.98 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No | 0.558 | 0.315 | $16.94 | −$13.06 |
| Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.006 | $0.67 | −$5.33 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.419 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.98 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? · No | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.22at 0.460US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$28.64at 0.539Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$23.66at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$23.63at 0.520Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026?
- +$21.59at 0.410US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 07:34 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.825 | $84.22 |
| 06-21 20:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.94 | $37.83 |
| 06-14 19:38 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | BUY | 0.7393331171 | $30.00 |
| 06-14 19:26 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0478190327 | $7.00 |
| 06-14 19:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $22.78 |
| 06-07 21:14 | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY | 0.1059999912 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 21:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 20:42 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.82 | $33.00 |
| 05-25 16:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $7.71 |
| 05-25 16:37 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $34.39 |
| 05-23 21:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $18.40 |
| 05-20 23:15 | Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.0586132183 | $6.00 |
| 05-13 10:51 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4186352491 | $35.00 |
| 05-11 18:38 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $50.00 |
| 05-09 22:14 | Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0473645642 | $7.00 |