stevensu777
0x3d6d0319212e55128ac3a5646892c81715e7bb6b
- Realised P&L
- $-136.76
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 148
- Open portfolio
- $845.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded148
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.845 | $302.51 | −$1.79 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? · Yes | 0.758 | 0.405 | $266.96 | −$233.04 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.645 | $143.29 | −$56.71 |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.850 | $85.00 | +$1.00 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.665 | $39.89 | +$2.10 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.922 | $8.30 | −$0.16 |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner · KT Rolster | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Hornets vs. Pacers · Hornets | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Rockets vs. Thunder · Thunder | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| 76ers vs. Cavaliers · 76ers | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.15 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs · Thunder | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks · Rockets | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Lakers vs. Clippers · Lakers | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.60at 0.710Clippers vs. Nuggets
- +$15.62at 0.390Magic vs. 76ers
- +$14.67at 0.915Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01?
- +$14.28at 0.130Lakers vs. Trail Blazers
- +$14.23at 0.260Clippers vs. Rockets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 15:48 | Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? | BUY | 0.85 | $280.50 |
| 10-27 15:41 | Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? | BUY | 0.85 | $23.80 |
| 10-27 15:39 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.0304539386 | $3.42 |
| 10-26 13:11 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $8.46 |
| 10-26 13:10 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 10-18 04:38 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 10-18 04:37 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | SELL | 0.543 | $43.44 |
| 10-15 07:12 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $37.79 |
| 10-08 14:00 | Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 10-08 13:48 | Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? | BUY | 0.900277008 | $200.00 |
| 10-08 13:48 | Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY | 0.758543596 | $500.00 |
| 10-08 13:47 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $100.00 |
| 02-21 16:42 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-21? | BUY | 0.7199999955 | $19.15 |
| 02-11 08:51 | Spurs vs. Warriors | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 02-11 08:50 | Clippers vs. Rockets | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |