Michael-The-Taxiarch
0x3cc379741b2ab96d61aab5942a1a711a89f1fb0b
- Realised P&L
- $494.48
- Volume
- $195.6k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $10.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.845 | $8.4k | −$50.00 |
| FDA approves Retatrutide this year? · No | 0.966 | 0.968 | $967.32 | +$1.13 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.825 | $400.99 | −$17.01 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) · Yes | 0.673 | 0.225 | $225.00 | −$448.33 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.127 | 0.105 | $57.17 | −$11.93 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.765 | $22.95 | −$1.05 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.584 | 0.695 | $22.38 | +$3.59 |
| Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$855.05at 0.179Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
- +$750.00at 0.250Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$664.49at 0.466Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
- +$484.71at 0.174Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
- +$358.24at 0.146Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 17:28 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 10-01 17:28 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $418.00 |
| 10-01 09:46 | Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.1669447108 | $4.0k |
| 09-29 23:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.44 | $599.72 |
| 09-29 22:59 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.43 | $15.44 |
| 09-29 22:47 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | SELL | 0.3482075893 | $428.44 |
| 09-29 22:46 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0318333363 | $252.51 |
| 09-29 22:42 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6771911363 | $2.9k |
| 09-29 22:31 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0778684211 | $100.61 |
| 09-29 22:28 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6786167789 | $2.9k |
| 09-29 22:28 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0620447829 | $411.99 |
| 09-29 22:05 | FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | BUY | 0.97 | $32.34 |
| 09-29 22:05 | FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | BUY | 0.9678733936 | $741.85 |
| 09-29 15:57 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5835776398 | $18.79 |
| 09-29 09:18 | Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $8 in 2026? | SELL | 0.875750757 | $187.98 |