kairostar
0x3c695cb9fdcdd9f02743f22aff427eda0a482cfb
- Realised P&L
- $-17.90
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $21.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.10at 0.090Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
- +$7.52at 0.210Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.34at 0.290U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?
- +$7.00at 0.300Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$6.92at 0.143Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 04:05 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $3.00 |
| 10-15 04:03 | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $3.00 |
| 10-15 04:01 | Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999425 | $3.00 |
| 10-15 03:24 | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31? | BUY | 0.1099999971 | $1.50 |
| 10-15 03:24 | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999982 | $1.50 |
| 10-15 03:11 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1679747984 | $2.00 |
| 10-15 03:08 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.9 | $5.51 |
| 10-15 03:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $5.56 |
| 10-12 18:55 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.147 | $7.17 |
| 10-12 18:53 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6199999907 | $4.00 |
| 09-24 02:27 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.00 |
| 09-24 02:26 | Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $3.00 |
| 09-22 23:26 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:38 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0229999999 | $2.00 |
| 08-10 20:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |