AliAlial
0x3c41135f94c3f04b4f263fa295b40d8c4cabbc0e
- Realised P&L
- $15.10
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $1.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.621 | 0.621 | $1.76 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.20at 0.276Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$3.95at 0.417Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
- +$3.10at 0.480Canadiens vs. Islanders
- +$2.20at 0.477Stars vs. Wild
- +$1.85at 0.475Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 15:01 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.6209998874 | $1.76 |
| 09-05 04:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.04 |
| 08-13 09:17 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.7599997532 | $2.71 |
| 07-26 17:15 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6789999782 | $2.80 |
| 07-03 08:15 | Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7599993644 | $1.10 |
| 06-30 19:37 | Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5899999684 | $1.87 |
| 06-23 09:50 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.4099999617 | $2.78 |
| 06-07 07:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.42 |
| 05-28 10:28 | Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.2699999054 | $1.94 |
| 05-15 13:17 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? | BUY | 0.3259999239 | $1.50 |
| 05-09 18:16 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.7299998285 | $2.98 |
| 05-03 14:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.99 |
| 04-30 20:21 | Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999955 | $3.60 |
| 04-22 13:19 | Stars vs. Wild | BUY | 0.4699999579 | $1.95 |
| 04-12 15:27 | Canadiens vs. Islanders | BUY | 0.4799999396 | $2.86 |