Celestinebay
0x3bc42c7139adff8251c04d72b57fdbcf7f8d116e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.6k
- Volume
- $10.1k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $31.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-45.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.835 | $10.06 | +$0.06 |
| UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) · Joanderson Brito | 0.776 | 0.765 | $8.88 | −$0.12 |
| UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims) · JooSang Yoo | 0.724 | 0.695 | $6.91 | −$0.29 |
| UFC 331: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) · Edmen Shahbazyan | 0.630 | 0.595 | $6.01 | −$0.35 |
| Spread: Rockets (-3.5) · 76ers | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.53 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Spread: Pistons (-8.5) · Kings | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5 · Over | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes · Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.543 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$53.40at 0.521Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
- +$5.23at 0.497Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
- +$2.89at 0.840Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?
- +$2.19at 0.762Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.730Clippers vs. Rockets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 09:20 | UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.7243946575 | $7.20 |
| 09-14 09:20 | UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) | BUY | 0.7756134715 | $9.00 |
| 09-14 09:19 | UFC 331: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | BUY | 0.6299999693 | $6.36 |
| 07-17 11:21 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.5 | $15.00 |
| 06-08 07:33 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 06-08 07:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 05-13 03:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.8299999978 | $15.00 |
| 05-13 03:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 04-25 19:49 | Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | BUY | 0.4899999953 | $28.11 |
| 04-09 12:34 | Spread: Rockets (-3.5) | BUY | 0.49 | $19.00 |
| 03-26 14:42 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | BUY | 0.54 | $5.35 |
| 03-10 13:08 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9909999011 | $6.00 |
| 03-10 13:07 | X banned in U.K. by March 31? | BUY | 0.9859999975 | $4.00 |
| 03-10 13:07 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.00 |
| 03-10 13:06 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7619999238 | $7.00 |