fdhgetrh
0x3bb2a1beee29e5d0a1f5aace5ddb5f232e0050e9
- Realised P&L
- $-4.53
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $13.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $12.09 | −$0.01 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 5? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
| Israel strikes Iran by September 30? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Cardinals vs. Giants · Cardinals | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.00at 0.500Spread: Texans (-1.5)
- +$0.33at 0.995Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 28 - April 4?
- +$0.32at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15?
- +$0.31at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
- +$0.30at 0.870Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $80000 on April 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:06 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.10 |
| 10-08 12:59 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-25 09:32 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.00 |
| 09-25 09:29 | Spread: Texans (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 06:44 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 06-06 02:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |
| 05-25 12:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |
| 05-21 10:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $105.00 |
| 05-15 11:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.9989999915 | $105.00 |
| 05-15 11:03 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.20 |
| 05-10 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $101.00 |
| 05-10 06:51 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 10? | BUY | 0.9989994621 | $1.30 |
| 05-10 06:50 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.30 |
| 05-10 06:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.10 |
| 05-10 06:49 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 10? | BUY | 0.997999392 | $1.30 |