naksoo
0x3ba870f950dc7172577eb545522b29ab7c1e3efc
- Realised P&L
- $5.99
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $6.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.923 | 0.926 | $5.00 | +$0.02 |
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.665 | $1.12 | −$0.04 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.308 | 0.065 | $0.54 | −$2.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.269 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.35at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$3.29at 0.532Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$2.41at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.97at 0.341Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24?
- +$1.66at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 05:15 | Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.61 | $2.08 |
| 09-14 18:33 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.828 | $4.55 |
| 08-17 09:42 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $6.95 |
| 08-17 09:37 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $4.26 |
| 08-16 20:50 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999982 | $3.06 |
| 08-16 20:50 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 12:03 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999225 | $2.60 |
| 08-06 12:03 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.2670920354 | $6.04 |
| 08-06 07:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 08-06 07:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $6.85 |
| 08-05 17:40 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2079999377 | $2.11 |
| 08-05 17:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.91 |
| 08-05 05:41 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.349999965 | $6.00 |
| 08-05 05:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $6.56 |
| 08-04 18:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999945 | $4.04 |