bot1335
0x3b97cbbbcc19b076f2f17958f57cf98f4ed7b36a
- Realised P&L
- $2.06
- Volume
- $133.71
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $85.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.993 | $9.93 | +$0.15 |
| Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.988 | 0.993 | $9.92 | +$0.05 |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? · No | 0.976 | 0.992 | $9.91 | +$0.15 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.983 | 0.986 | $9.86 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-47 House seat? · Yes | 0.968 | 0.978 | $9.78 | +$0.10 |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.978 | 0.973 | $9.73 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.970 | $9.70 | −$0.04 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-17 House seat? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.967 | $9.66 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-07 House seat? · Yes | 0.969 | 0.975 | $7.23 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.58at 0.770Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?
- +$0.34at 0.966No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$0.31at 0.969US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?
- +$0.30at 0.970Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Maranhão?
- +$0.25at 0.975Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 19:19 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.7699999399 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 17:42 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.969 | $9.69 |