Thug4
0x3b8802558a216a0d4d77150f5c9fe18aa131efcb
- Realised P&L
- $269.21
- Volume
- $253.1k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $334.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.406 | 0.375 | $302.93 | −$25.07 |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $31.50 | −$148.45 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the US strike another country first? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the US strike another country first? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.61 |
| Celtics vs. Lakers · Lakers | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Spurs vs. Pistons · Pistons | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.33 |
| Will Trump and Machado not shake hands? · No | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.15 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? · Yes | 0.608 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.79 |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks · 49ers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Celtics vs. Suns · Suns | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.47 |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? · No | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 11? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$171.92at 0.890Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$75.66at 0.449Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?
- +$35.52at 0.235Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$32.97at 0.936Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$13.95at 0.768Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 16:10 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4099999992 | $200.00 |
| 09-29 14:15 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.4 | $440.00 |
| 09-15 17:26 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.47 | $517.00 |
| 08-27 11:54 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $50.00 |
| 06-26 21:08 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.2031253871 | $1.0k |
| 06-25 05:56 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1949999999 | $1000.00 |
| 06-11 15:46 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.014 | $1000.00 |
| 05-04 03:15 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2069998733 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 02:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? | SELL | 0.58 | $386.63 |
| 05-04 02:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? | BUY | 0.4312993073 | $287.51 |
| 04-30 16:32 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3799999999 | $3.0k |
| 04-30 16:28 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.94 | $3.4k |
| 04-26 14:12 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899932172 | $3.2k |
| 04-26 14:12 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.9461106069 | $3.2k |
| 03-26 02:53 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9363753964 | $3.2k |