PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

Thug4

0x3b8802558a216a0d4d77150f5c9fe18aa131efcb

Realised P&L
$269.21
Volume
$253.1k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$334.43

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample15 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)73.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration90.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4060.375$302.93−$25.07
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0030.001$31.50−$148.45
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes0.2070.000$0.00−$1.00
Will the US strike another country first? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00−$5.00
Will the US strike another country first? · Yes0.0370.000$0.00−$5.61
Celtics vs. Lakers · Lakers0.3200.000$0.00−$30.00
Spurs vs. Pistons · Pistons0.4300.000$0.00−$30.33
Will Trump and Machado not shake hands? · No0.0850.000$0.00−$0.15
Will the US strike Iran next? · Yes0.6080.000$0.00−$25.79
49ers vs. Seahawks · 49ers0.2200.000$0.00−$10.00
Celtics vs. Suns · Suns0.5800.000$0.00−$50.47
Will the US strike Somalia next? · No0.0310.000$0.00−$25.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 11? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-29 16:10Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4099999992$200.00
09-29 14:15Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.4$440.00
09-15 17:26Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.47$517.00
08-27 11:54Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.001$50.00
06-26 21:08Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.2031253871$1.0k
06-25 05:56Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1949999999$1000.00
06-11 15:46Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.014$1000.00
05-04 03:15Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY0.2069998733$1.00
05-04 02:57Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?SELL0.58$386.63
05-04 02:05Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?BUY0.4312993073$287.51
04-30 16:32Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.3799999999$3.0k
04-30 16:28Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.94$3.4k
04-26 14:12Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.8899932172$3.2k
04-26 14:12Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.9461106069$3.2k
03-26 02:53Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.9363753964$3.2k