0x3b379bad08d99fbc3e40f8a8c51ca3ef45a4bedb
0x3b379bad08d99fbc3e40f8a8c51ca3ef45a4bedb
- Realised P&L
- $20.59
- Volume
- $18.8k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $50.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.840 | 0.885 | $15.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.024 | $13.56 | +$3.20 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.011 | $10.50 | −$4.42 |
| France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.075 | $7.50 | −$1.50 |
| Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.050 | $2.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.007 | $0.65 | −$1.35 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.99 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET · Down | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.77at 0.610Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?
- +$5.54at 0.229Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
- +$-0.18at 0.076Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-0.38at 0.913Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-0.90at 0.389Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 11:02 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 10-26 15:29 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $15.00 |
| 10-26 05:44 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 10-26 05:43 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0145332918 | $2.34 |
| 10-26 05:41 | Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $6.00 |
| 10-26 05:37 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.89 | $14.67 |
| 10-25 11:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 10-24 12:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-20 20:18 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | SELL | 0.3 | $27.27 |
| 10-20 19:41 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $20.00 |
| 10-19 11:48 | Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.66 |
| 10-19 11:32 | Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.5999999931 | $35.00 |
| 10-19 07:41 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $15.00 |
| 10-16 13:50 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.04 | $46.00 |
| 10-16 11:03 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |