0x3af328BDb7E12Bed891F5B162C37F6C25d2d6214-1778933655688
0x3af328bdb7e12bed891f5b162c37f6c25d2d6214
- Realised P&L
- $-6.72
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $105.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.205 | $41.05 | +$6.03 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.029 | $36.26 | −$21.08 |
| Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.033 | $16.33 | +$0.61 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.045 | $7.33 | −$5.06 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.048 | $4.75 | −$2.25 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No | 0.110 | 0.024 | $0.23 | −$0.86 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.79 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.81at 0.155Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.16at 0.204Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$4.30at 0.250 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- +$1.48at 0.748Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
- +$0.85at 0.810Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:34 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0336437601 | $4.33 |
| 08-03 21:09 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0314933862 | $5.79 |
| 08-03 21:03 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.63 | $5.79 |
| 08-01 04:54 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0360000006 | $2.60 |
| 08-01 04:50 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.10 |
| 08-01 04:46 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.62 | $5.70 |
| 07-30 23:35 | Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0304066928 | $2.50 |
| 07-30 23:31 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999779 | $6.79 |
| 07-30 23:30 | Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 07-16 08:33 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1714285714 | $6.00 |
| 07-16 08:29 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999333 | $1.78 |
| 07-16 08:27 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.043516484 | $4.40 |
| 07-07 21:17 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999001 | $1.31 |
| 07-07 21:17 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 06-26 09:12 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.71 |