efef94
0x3ad06c0442a788da3a36fa56faab12471bd71153
- Realised P&L
- $-93.26
- Volume
- $139.8k
- Markets traded
- 431
- Open portfolio
- $91.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded431
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$931.35at 0.059Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
- +$108.74at 0.038Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$70.28at 0.760Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$48.11at 0.331Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?
- +$43.01at 0.411Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 17:25 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? | BUY | 0.1549957336 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 17:05 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | BUY | 0.0140326259 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 12:49 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25? | BUY | 0.0082263151 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 12:48 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | BUY | 0.0588235294 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 09:57 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21? | BUY | 0.034881805 | $5.00 |
| 07-25 09:57 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25? | BUY | 0.6310453819 | $19.00 |
| 07-19 09:23 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.9489999973 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 09:04 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.92 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 17:07 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-02 16:28 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.5074999886 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 16:27 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 16:26 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 16:26 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 16:26 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.281583452 | $10.00 |
| 07-02 16:25 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |