udgb
0x3acb37824f60926c2debda2de29c3a28a8f44bd2
- Realised P&L
- $124.77
- Volume
- $10.5k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $49.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration95.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.998 | $33.28 | +$0.48 |
| Will Sui reach $3.00 before 2027? · No | 0.996 | 0.909 | $13.69 | −$1.31 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 1.000 | $1.23 | +$0.15 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in August? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $1.05 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.83at 0.500Canadiens vs. Penguins
- +$5.32at 0.911Miami Open: Laura Siegemund vs Petra Marcinko
- +$0.05at 0.989Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$0.04at 0.990Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$0.03at 0.992US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 11:21 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999348 | $1.08 |
| 08-03 11:20 | Will Sui reach $3.00 before 2027? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.00 |
| 08-03 11:19 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in August? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.05 |
| 07-09 16:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.48 |
| 07-09 16:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.03 |
| 07-09 16:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.9979992901 | $1.06 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on July 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.07 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 11? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.11 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 11? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.15 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 11? | BUY | 0.979 | $1.12 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 11? | BUY | 0.9929999982 | $1.11 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 11? | BUY | 0.9969999991 | $1.12 |
| 07-09 16:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 11? | BUY | 0.9979994611 | $1.10 |
| 07-09 16:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on July 11? | BUY | 0.9979995019 | $1.11 |
| 07-09 16:54 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 on July 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.15 |