0x3a800e25603c839bcd6f3bd28209d05b8594eda4
- Realised P&L
- $15.52
- Volume
- $293.77
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $17.41
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · No | 0.260 | 1.000 | $7.69 | +$5.69 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.915 | $2.80 | +$1.27 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.982 | $2.67 | +$0.66 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.500 | $2.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.14at 0.280US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$4.07at 0.337Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 12:23 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 04:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:57 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 19:30 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 00:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 13:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 04:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 05:13 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 21:06 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 00:43 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:07 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 21:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 07:57 | Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 20:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999784 | $2.00 |