PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

xxchen0412

0x39fc488c1ea11145bdabff2d8b24e4f958985698

Realised P&L
$-778.91
Volume
$25.0k
Markets traded
364
Open portfolio
$2.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded364
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.8700.961$192.10+$18.10
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.8711.000$170.00+$22.00
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? · No0.8731.000$149.99+$19.00
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? · No0.7971.000$103.33+$21.00
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? · No0.9001.000$100.00+$10.00
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.7601.000$100.00+$24.00
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? · No0.8601.000$100.00+$14.00
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? · No0.9001.000$100.00+$10.00
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · No0.8701.000$100.00+$13.00
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? · No0.9401.000$99.99+$6.00
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No0.8800.962$96.14+$8.15
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.8900.956$95.55+$6.55
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No0.8800.955$95.50+$7.50
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.7900.922$92.20+$13.20
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8400.915$91.50+$7.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-26 15:59Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?BUY0.85$62.90
01-25 03:19Will "Sanders" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?BUY0.98$4.90
01-25 03:18Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?BUY0.5$0.50
01-25 03:18Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?BUY0.8$4.00
01-13 14:29Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?SELL0.69$82.80
01-13 13:10Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?SELL0.0895466346$3.73
01-12 15:18Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?SELL0.26$26.00
01-01 16:42Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 1?BUY0.76$6.08
12-31 15:39Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 31?BUY0.59$5.90
12-30 07:00Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?BUY0.02$2.00
12-29 00:00Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 29?BUY0.93$93.00
12-18 01:13Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?BUY0.99$29.70
11-09 15:252025 September third hottest on record?BUY0.2923976608$100.00
Trader xxchen0412 · PolyBot