0x39ee260f005f8d183dedcbf9a70e7840d1b7572f
- Realised P&L
- $1.58
- Volume
- $59.46
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $16.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.625 | $6.25 | +$4.05 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.570 | $3.48 | +$1.28 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.730 | $2.29 | +$0.09 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.340 | $2.20 | +$0.00 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.330 | $1.86 | −$0.34 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.55at 0.800S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510Another pandemic before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:55 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999104 | $2.20 |
| 08-04 00:53 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999018 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 16:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6999999364 | $2.20 |
| 08-03 08:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.20 |
| 08-02 20:28 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999362 | $2.20 |
| 08-02 00:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999125 | $2.20 |
| 08-01 05:28 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 21:24 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 13:23 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 03:59 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 18:55 | Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.44 |