0x39e10b82cfd345564a30c310ee0aa39a98433778
0x39e10b82cfd345564a30c310ee0aa39a98433778
- Realised P&L
- $-1.52
- Volume
- $61.55
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $21.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.685 | $7.47 | +$5.18 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.972 | $3.37 | +$1.08 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.265 | $2.76 | +$0.47 |
| Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · No | 0.800 | 0.870 | $2.49 | +$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.835 | $2.48 | +$0.19 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $112.50 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.655 | $1.87 | −$0.42 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.225 | $0.92 | −$1.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.70at 0.769Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?
- +$0.70at 0.769Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$0.62at 0.788Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?
- +$0.58at 0.798Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$0.55at 0.808Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 20:22 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $112.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 09-20 11:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999609 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 23:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999981 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 12:02 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6599999942 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 04:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999933 | $2.29 |
| 09-18 05:59 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999734 | $2.29 |
| 09-17 21:49 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 09-17 13:20 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999659 | $2.29 |
| 09-17 05:06 | Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.29 |
| 09-16 21:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999734 | $2.29 |
| 09-16 13:05 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999982 | $2.29 |
| 09-16 05:04 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999759 | $2.29 |
| 09-15 20:21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998047 | $2.29 |
| 09-15 12:20 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999867 | $2.29 |