matanovik
0x39d3c773be30fcc73161fc6768f46d563a779ef0
- Realised P&L
- $435.9k
- Volume
- $53.75M
- Markets traded
- 2,545
- Open portfolio
- $16.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,545
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Louisville (-14.5) · Louisville | 0.425 | 0.435 | $7.0k | +$160.66 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-09-25? · No | 0.330 | 0.305 | $3.1k | −$257.14 |
| Spread: Ohio State (-26.5) · Ohio State | 0.510 | 0.505 | $3.0k | −$29.51 |
| Will France win on 2026-09-25? · No | 0.280 | 0.275 | $1.1k | −$19.86 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.115 | $1.0k | +$44.80 |
| Will Romania win on 2026-09-25? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.115 | $641.36 | −$83.65 |
| Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs · JiJieHao | 0.580 | 0.110 | $509.96 | −$2.2k |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.435 | $434.90 | +$49.99 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.6k |
| Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) · Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$670.54 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.5k |
| Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) · Baltimore Orioles | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$448.00 |
| Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) · Seattle Mariners | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$347.76 |
| Colts vs. Chiefs · Colts | 0.291 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.6k |
| Giants vs. Rams: O/U 50.5 · Over | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$194.7kat 0.393Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
- +$161.7kat 0.342Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24?
- +$144.5kat 0.191Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-05?
- +$139.2kat 0.512Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
- +$136.9kat 0.575Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 17:43 | Spread: Louisville (-14.5) | BUY | 0.43 | $3.4k |
| 09-25 17:16 | Spread: Louisville (-14.5) | BUY | 0.42 | $2.7k |
| 09-25 17:12 | Spread: Ohio State (-26.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $1.0k |
| 09-25 17:09 | Spread: Ohio State (-26.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $1.0k |
| 09-25 17:07 | Spread: Ohio State (-26.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $1.0k |
| 09-25 17:00 | Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs | BUY | 0.58 | $1.3k |
| 09-25 16:53 | Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Sangal (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Playoffs | BUY | 0.58 | $1.3k |
| 09-25 16:36 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.11 | $985.60 |
| 09-25 15:14 | Will Sweden win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.33 | $2.9k |
| 09-25 15:04 | Will Romania win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.13 | $725.01 |
| 09-25 14:07 | Will France win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.1k |
| 09-24 23:53 | Will Brazil win on 2026-09-25? | BUY | 0.25 | $320.00 |
| 09-24 23:39 | Spread: Packers (-7.5) | BUY | 0.38 | $873.91 |
| 09-24 23:27 | Spread: Packers (-7.5) | BUY | 0.39 | $19.1k |
| 09-24 21:45 | Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5 | BUY | 0.42 | $3.6k |