Bersa1202
0x39c987ed5a091de6a7d01e85e37fd5c510880db2
- Realised P&L
- $213.84
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.843 | 0.972 | $1.5k | +$203.85 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.915 | $463.69 | +$108.96 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.790 | $248.84 | +$6.30 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.869 | 0.950 | $4.75 | +$0.41 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.061 | $3.77 | −$0.19 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? · No | 0.837 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.33at 0.700Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?
- +$50.84at 0.669Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026?
- +$46.75at 0.693Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
- +$36.64at 0.975Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?
- +$33.14at 0.787Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:58 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $28.00 |
| 09-22 05:37 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $400.00 |
| 09-21 19:23 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $3.96 |
| 09-21 18:15 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6846639455 | $300.00 |
| 09-21 18:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9786082212 | $500.00 |
| 09-21 16:28 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $91.62 |
| 09-21 16:27 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $150.92 |
| 09-21 08:19 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9737061649 | $122.90 |
| 09-21 00:43 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.869 | $4.34 |
| 09-20 16:02 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.691953495 | $241.30 |
| 09-20 16:01 | Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $245.87 |
| 09-19 06:13 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $53.25 |
| 09-18 18:11 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $52.22 |
| 09-18 12:07 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $0.16 |
| 09-17 07:59 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $100.47 |