0x39b33fd05caebc13aff95b36a3fb9ce4ecff0cd2
- Realised P&L
- $-119.00
- Volume
- $7.9k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $49.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.390 | 0.825 | $10.58 | +$5.58 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.280 | $9.28 | −$5.64 |
| AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026? · Yes | 0.297 | 0.115 | $7.75 | −$12.25 |
| Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? · No | 0.320 | 0.240 | $7.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.160 | $6.92 | −$3.08 |
| Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? · Yes | 0.632 | 0.396 | $6.27 | −$3.73 |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.050 | $1.24 | −$3.76 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.001 | $0.20 | −$21.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.34at 0.410Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
- +$56.23at 0.269Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
- +$45.74at 0.310Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$24.33at 0.704Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?
- +$14.60at 0.659S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 06:16 | AI artwork hits $10M at major auction in 2026? | BUY | 0.2969180951 | $20.00 |
| 09-12 06:16 | Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 06:14 | Will Tiger Woods play in a PGA Tournament in 2026? | BUY | 0.2311604253 | $10.00 |
| 09-12 06:13 | Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? | BUY | 0.6319999924 | $10.00 |
| 08-16 06:55 | Will Sam Burns win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship? | BUY | 0.1689999878 | $10.00 |
| 07-30 10:34 | Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | BUY | 0.1989999692 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 09:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.569999961 | $6.00 |
| 07-17 19:23 | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0129999996 | $35.00 |
| 07-17 19:21 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4059999826 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 19:20 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July? | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-16 02:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.4209999711 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 04:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.3899999774 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 04:39 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0569999987 | $40.00 |
| 06-23 04:28 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | BUY | 0.2599999935 | $20.00 |
| 06-23 04:27 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |