0x39ab6d855e260460d8677f4295e9f729e6a1dcd6
0x39ab6d855e260460d8677f4295e9f729e6a1dcd6
- Realised P&L
- $-190.52
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 70
- Open portfolio
- $41.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded70
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-07 House election by 10%-15%? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.245 | $29.40 | −$3.00 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-28 House election by 5%-10%? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.195 | $3.90 | −$0.50 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-08 House election by 15%-20%? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.180 | $3.61 | −$0.25 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-35 House election by 6%-9%? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.165 | $3.30 | −$1.70 |
| Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October? · No | 0.560 | 0.525 | $1.37 | −$0.09 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-04 House election by 30%-35%? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.004 | $0.09 | −$3.71 |
| Will brawk have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.002 | $0.00 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.250Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 6%-9%?
- +$10.20at 0.330Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?
- +$5.20at 0.240Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 10%-15%?
- +$1.80at 0.470Will Ryan Peterson win the next Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
- +$1.80at 0.470Will Ryan Peterson win the next Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?