viyolinka
0x3939a40d370cfde2bc41fcb9f427d91179886d6c
- Realised P&L
- $609.34
- Volume
- $167.0k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.895 | $1.8k | −$50.00 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.957 | 0.999 | $9.98 | +$0.41 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.991 | $4.96 | +$0.35 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · No | 0.880 | 0.946 | $4.73 | +$0.33 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.735 | $4.41 | −$0.81 |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.155 | $0.78 | −$0.97 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.021 | $0.44 | −$4.42 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$410.06at 0.832Thailand x Cambodia military engagement by November 30, 2025?
- +$85.36at 0.937Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
- +$79.58at 0.964Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
- +$79.31at 0.970TikTok sale announced in 2025?
- +$64.11at 0.925Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 19:59 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $192.00 |
| 08-22 07:10 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $0.02 |
| 08-21 19:43 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.6524363311 | $2.6k |
| 08-20 19:38 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.957 | $9.57 |
| 07-14 16:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 15? | BUY | 0.977 | $97.70 |
| 06-15 10:35 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $3.0k |
| 05-23 21:12 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.0k |
| 05-02 16:27 | QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $40.00 |
| 05-02 16:26 | QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.9k |
| 04-29 14:25 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.9k |
| 04-21 18:41 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $3.0k |
| 04-16 19:19 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9919999998 | $2.9k |
| 03-15 07:02 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.9k |
| 01-31 04:59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.9k |
| 01-30 02:22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999998 | $2.8k |