0x39157762b2d32c48a44e8ff8ead10db052d9d678
0x39157762b2d32c48a44e8ff8ead10db052d9d678
- Realised P&L
- $9.76
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $101.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.775 | $32.82 | +$9.53 |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.051 | $24.76 | −$0.24 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.200 | $21.26 | −$25.52 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.022 | $12.25 | −$36.75 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.055 | $9.98 | −$39.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.09at 0.320Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$38.03at 0.382US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.58at 0.198Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$-114.94at 0.190Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 01:01 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.052 | $25.00 |
| 06-19 03:47 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1849999988 | $111.65 |
| 06-03 15:50 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999948 | $23.38 |
| 03-23 16:13 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.5499999965 | $23.29 |
| 03-17 13:15 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $46.78 |
| 01-19 05:21 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $30.00 |
| 01-15 06:58 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $50.58 |
| 01-15 06:58 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $72.15 |
| 01-09 16:38 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.2699999967 | $49.00 |
| 01-09 16:07 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.197699177 | $50.00 |
| 01-08 16:51 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2699999963 | $50.00 |
| 01-08 16:44 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999984 | $49.00 |