afflilbru
0x38cf62d2fee064fc6316775a4bde92d4a0f17148
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $35.0k
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $207.04
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$651.79at 0.215Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$184.97at 0.457ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?
- +$161.87at 0.136Will Trump say "Luck" this week? (December 8 - 14)
- +$95.00at 0.050Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?
- +$92.00at 0.080Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 21:10 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 10-09 21:10 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 10-09 21:10 | Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.18 |
| 09-27 23:52 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $1.70 |
| 09-24 01:09 | Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in September? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.28 |
| 09-24 01:09 | Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in September? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.35 |
| 07-01 19:52 | Will the announcers say "Presence" during the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup Match? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.84 |
| 06-27 19:31 | Will the announcers say "Free Kick" 15+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup Match? | SELL | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 06-19 21:56 | Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.16 |
| 06-17 18:57 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.52 |
| 06-17 18:49 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.50 |
| 06-17 18:49 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.54 |
| 06-17 18:39 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? | SELL | 0.25 | $18.25 |
| 06-12 01:27 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL | 0.3 | $9.00 |
| 06-08 18:01 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $26.25 |