dages
0x38c848a754529192e9c149ab840bd58a01eb6e2f
- Realised P&L
- $76.89
- Volume
- $9.3k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $107.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.902 | 0.982 | $101.09 | +$8.19 |
| Will Angel City FC win on 2026-11-01? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.365 | $6.57 | −$3.51 |
| Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-08-29? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.37 |
| USC vs. Penn State · Penn State | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.07 |
| Guayaquil: Franco Roncadelli vs Valerio Aboian · Franco Roncadelli | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Brest: Stefano Travaglia vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert · Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-08-29? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
| Sioux Falls: Mitchell Krueger vs Andres Andrade · Andres Andrade | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.02 |
| Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Claire Liu · Claire Liu | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Antofagasta: Juan Bautista Torres vs Pedro Boscardin Dias · Juan Bautista Torres | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Guayaquil: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Rodrigo Pacheco · Juan Pablo Varillas | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.40 |
| Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Harriet Dart · Paula Badosa | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.36 |
| Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna · Juan Manuel La Serna | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.44 |
| LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage · CTBC Flying Oyster | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.08 |
| North Dakota State vs. UNLV · North Dakota State | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.59at 0.044Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$40.00at 0.200LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
- +$31.92at 0.240LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
- +$22.20at 0.260Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
- +$12.65at 0.450Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-08-30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 16:40 | USC vs. Penn State | BUY | 0.53 | $10.07 |
| 10-09 16:33 | UAB vs. Memphis | BUY | 0.84 | $10.08 |
| 10-06 09:30 | China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur | BUY | 0.62 | $10.54 |
| 09-15 14:44 | Colts vs. Chiefs | BUY | 0.74 | $10.36 |
| 07-24 16:01 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.04 |
| 07-24 15:19 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.30 |
| 07-24 15:14 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.02 |
| 07-24 15:10 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $312 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.17 |
| 07-24 13:59 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.07 |
| 07-24 13:55 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 07-24 04:39 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 Week of July 20 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.25 |
| 06-12 04:03 | Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 06-11 07:12 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $6.57 |
| 06-02 16:01 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? | SELL | 0.8998 | $89.98 |
| 06-02 12:14 | Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? | SELL | 0.922 | $16.61 |