bmmmm4
0x38c119720096af1c3c56b074717667f4cc742023
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $82.5k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $11.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.834 | 0.954 | $9.7k | +$1.2k |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.324 | 0.579 | $750.50 | +$330.67 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.835 | $564.13 | −$23.87 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.915 | $431.76 | +$96.76 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.605 | $75.58 | +$33.58 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? · No | 0.919 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.766Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$543.90at 0.875Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
- +$443.94at 0.885Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
- +$327.71at 0.930Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
- +$248.62at 0.877US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 10:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5169999938 | $16.00 |
| 09-15 10:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | SELL | 0.1253359505 | $16.60 |
| 09-07 01:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4100597046 | $186.02 |
| 09-07 01:14 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $190.74 |
| 09-05 23:04 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.3197531607 | $115.00 |
| 09-05 23:03 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $157.28 |
| 09-05 23:03 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.695461317 | $222.21 |
| 09-05 01:31 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.6259314455 | $200.00 |
| 09-05 01:10 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.4216981451 | $249.84 |
| 09-01 16:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8393948617 | $1.4k |
| 09-01 16:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8199999997 | $383.00 |
| 09-01 16:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8268542236 | $665.00 |
| 09-01 16:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8175471434 | $1.1k |
| 09-01 16:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.6k |
| 09-01 14:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8813254058 | $300.00 |