Xirax
0x38252875f77105b979c166104e800fe2dda6760a
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $42.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $806.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.182 | $421.15 | +$121.16 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.425 | $231.82 | −$68.18 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.025 | $90.68 | −$9.32 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $62.66 | −$17.32 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$845.35at 0.215Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$442.06at 0.451Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?
- +$194.45at 0.720Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$-20.00at 0.011Will South Korean President lift martial law today?
- +$-100.00at 0.054Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 00:06 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0039091169 | $30.00 |
| 06-02 15:17 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $50.00 |
| 05-27 17:42 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999996 | $300.00 |
| 01-23 23:38 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0323552764 | $10.00 |
| 01-23 23:38 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0842002477 | $30.00 |
| 01-23 23:38 | Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.1085036949 | $30.00 |
| 01-14 20:57 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 01-08 15:03 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $500.00 |
| 11-12 19:56 | Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? | BUY | 0.2484080384 | $300.00 |
| 11-12 19:48 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1299999997 | $300.00 |
| 11-12 19:47 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.028121343 | $100.00 |
| 06-01 21:15 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.85 | $942.05 |
| 05-07 20:26 | Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? | BUY | 0.0539042976 | $100.00 |
| 02-19 02:49 | Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | BUY | 0.7199999997 | $500.00 |
| 02-19 02:48 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.4511391956 | $500.00 |