0x380bf1c326a3a0ab47a301cba3502f5527e8b180
0x380bf1c326a3a0ab47a301cba3502f5527e8b180
- Realised P&L
- $-0.76
- Volume
- $35.52
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $9.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.475 | $2.08 | +$1.03 |
| Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.415 | $1.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.350 | $1.53 | +$0.48 |
| Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? · No | 0.790 | 0.925 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.275 | $1.07 | +$0.02 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.221 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.790 | 0.615 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.065 | $0.26 | −$0.74 |
| Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.012 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.31at 0.767Will Costco say "Spending" during earnings call?
- +$-1.06at 0.769Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 10:09 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 21-September 27? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 10:08 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 02:03 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 02:02 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 18:00 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 18:00 | Will Costco say "Spending" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 10:00 | Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 01:59 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999923 | $1.05 |
| 09-23 17:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.05 |
| 09-23 09:46 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.05 |
| 09-23 00:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999971 | $1.05 |