Aristocracy
0x37b64800841d95aa267b057fed32acea51aa6457
- Realised P&L
- $-28.0k
- Volume
- $357.9k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.5kat 0.569Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
- +$2.8kat 0.300Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
- +$1.5kat 0.354Grok 4.20 released by January 31?
- +$927.18at 0.543Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
- +$287.71at 0.103Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 15:20 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | SELL | 0.1024751013 | $32.62 |
| 06-15 05:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.4547436683 | $900.00 |
| 06-15 04:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.3098965564 | $1000.00 |
| 06-15 04:33 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 06-15 04:27 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8209999986 | $100.00 |
| 06-14 07:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.2299999997 | $500.00 |
| 02-06 21:53 | US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.0542990016 | $578.65 |
| 02-06 20:50 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $950.00 |
| 02-06 20:50 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.0k |
| 02-06 20:08 | US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3980177371 | $1000.00 |
| 02-06 20:00 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.0k |
| 02-06 19:59 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.50 |
| 02-06 19:58 | US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.3180296278 | $1000.00 |
| 02-06 08:25 | US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.2509818795 | $595.58 |
| 02-06 05:34 | US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9152745127 | $4.8k |