vivaeuropa
0x37af17eeea7a85bad51f46856430f68aeb172f21
- Realised P&L
- $-198.83
- Volume
- $38.5k
- Markets traded
- 162
- Open portfolio
- $904.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded162
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.42at 0.140Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?
- +$56.46at 0.578Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?
- +$49.23at 0.289Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
- +$20.53at 0.727Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$19.18at 0.881Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:03 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $6.93 |
| 09-17 17:03 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 09-17 17:03 | Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $15.20 |
| 09-16 15:27 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $27.90 |
| 09-06 15:43 | Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? | SELL | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 09-01 14:10 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 08-27 14:54 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.61 |
| 08-24 18:20 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.12 |
| 08-24 17:33 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $7.20 |
| 08-23 18:25 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $3.15 |
| 08-23 18:13 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.63 | $3.78 |
| 08-21 19:12 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $16.60 |
| 08-19 18:35 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.7238333333 | $43.43 |
| 08-19 18:34 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $6.48 |
| 08-18 18:08 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | BUY | 0.94875 | $37.95 |