vivaeuropa
0x37af17eeea7a85bad51f46856430f68aeb172f21
- Realised P&L
- $-294.00
- Volume
- $37.7k
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.42at 0.140Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?
- +$56.46at 0.578Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?
- +$49.23at 0.289Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
- +$20.53at 0.727Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$19.18at 0.881Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 15:04 | Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30? | SELL | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 08-03 19:01 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.60291 | $18.09 |
| 08-03 18:55 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 08-03 15:11 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $2.70 |
| 08-03 14:46 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? | SELL | 0.59 | $3.54 |
| 08-02 15:01 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 08-02 10:29 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 08-02 10:13 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 08-02 10:13 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 07-28 18:57 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 07-28 18:55 | Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $19.96 |
| 07-28 18:43 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $9.44 |
| 07-25 20:52 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.46 | $5.52 |
| 07-25 20:51 | Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.55 | $16.49 |
| 07-20 18:43 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $18.20 |