renshengjian
0x37881f1ebb0d65aa91f27508def06c4906b0ec5a
- Realised P&L
- $-8.56
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $15.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $13.69 | −$0.01 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.945 | $1.90 | +$0.31 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 7? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of XRP be above $2.80 on October 24? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.28at 0.963Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 9?
- +$2.31at 0.975Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?
- +$0.98at 0.988Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 15?
- +$0.32at 0.996Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$0.18at 0.998US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 07:53 | Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.70 |
| 10-06 07:51 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999851 | $1.59 |
| 09-21 15:16 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $15.30 |
| 08-28 14:51 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.30 |
| 07-24 08:38 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.20 |
| 06-05 08:09 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-28 08:08 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $90.00 |
| 05-25 06:35 | Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.90 |
| 05-17 07:37 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $70.00 |
| 05-15 11:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.9989999863 | $68.00 |
| 05-15 11:12 | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY | 0.019 | $3.80 |
| 05-15 11:11 | Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? | BUY | 0.9979999554 | $19.00 |
| 05-10 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 05-05 09:23 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 04-23 11:12 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.18 |