mvmca1611
0x3744ed95f66be5ebe553b0f9c9a15f236c4fd422
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $909.8k
- Markets traded
- 618
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded618
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.59at 0.902Will Jason Friedman be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?
- +$11.95at 0.462Senators vs. Devils
- +$8.34at 0.760Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- +$7.33at 0.120Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$6.66at 0.135Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:57 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 03:55 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 11-02 03:02 | Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 11-02 02:53 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 11-02 02:43 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999975 | $50.00 |
| 11-02 02:30 | Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.11 |
| 11-02 02:27 | Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.3899999945 | $20.00 |
| 11-02 02:26 | Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $25.00 |
| 11-02 02:23 | Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.5099999984 | $25.00 |
| 11-02 02:14 | Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 11-02 02:02 | Senators vs. Ducks | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $15.00 |
| 11-02 02:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 01:59 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? | BUY | 0.4599999669 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 01:58 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.2829999924 | $1.00 |
| 11-02 01:54 | Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.3699999976 | $25.00 |