mvmca1611
0x3744ed95f66be5ebe553b0f9c9a15f236c4fd422
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $907.4k
- Markets traded
- 417
- Open portfolio
- $383.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded417
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.59at 0.902Will Jason Friedman be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?
- +$8.34at 0.760Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
- +$5.56at 0.900Will La Shawn Ford be the Democratic Nominee for IL-07?
- +$4.03at 0.783US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$3.60at 0.730Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-04 22:45 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 04-04 21:51 | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.11 |
| 04-04 21:51 | Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $1.04 |
| 04-04 21:51 | Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.56 |
| 04-04 21:33 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | SELL | 0.98 | $3.68 |
| 04-04 21:33 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.69 | $2.93 |
| 04-04 21:33 | Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $2.85 |
| 04-04 15:23 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.55 |
| 04-04 15:21 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | SELL | 0.94 | $9.11 |
| 04-04 14:11 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $50.00 |
| 04-04 13:33 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $100.00 |
| 04-04 13:10 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $410.00 |
| 04-04 03:47 | Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $75.00 |
| 04-04 03:46 | Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $10.11 |
| 04-04 03:46 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $12.27 |