DavidAlvarado8816
0x370245623c708e96cb47fc17bafe32faa442829d
- Realised P&L
- $-707.72
- Volume
- $104.3k
- Markets traded
- 132
- Open portfolio
- $93.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded132
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.125 | $88.38 | −$3.54 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.125 | $5.50 | −$13.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$326.16at 0.511Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
- +$180.75at 0.250Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
- +$101.92at 0.150Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$94.96at 0.639Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$89.10at 0.440Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 08:52 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.81 |
| 04-27 08:51 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.81 |
| 04-27 08:49 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $5.20 |
| 04-12 08:46 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $100.92 |
| 04-12 08:44 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $385.41 |
| 04-10 21:13 | Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $486.33 |
| 04-09 12:09 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | SELL | 0.74 | $271.58 |
| 04-09 10:37 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.22 | $29.48 |
| 04-09 10:36 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.22 | $39.38 |
| 04-09 10:34 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.22 | $145.86 |
| 04-07 16:49 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | BUY | 0.63 | $231.21 |
| 04-07 13:35 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | BUY | 0.51 | $497.76 |
| 03-31 08:25 | Named storm forms before hurricane season? | SELL | 0.74 | $61.42 |
| 03-30 12:37 | Named storm forms before hurricane season? | BUY | 0.67 | $55.61 |
| 03-25 17:26 | Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.90 |