PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

DavidAlvarado8816

0x370245623c708e96cb47fc17bafe32faa442829d

Realised P&L
$-707.72
Volume
$104.3k
Markets traded
132
Open portfolio
$93.88

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded132
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.1300.125$88.38−$3.54
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.4400.125$5.50−$13.86

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-27 08:52Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.13$4.81
04-27 08:51Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.13$4.81
04-27 08:49Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?SELL0.13$5.20
04-12 08:46Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?SELL0.87$100.92
04-12 08:44Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?SELL0.87$385.41
04-10 21:13Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by April 30?BUY0.87$486.33
04-09 12:09Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?SELL0.74$271.58
04-09 10:37Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?SELL0.22$29.48
04-09 10:36Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?SELL0.22$39.38
04-09 10:34Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?SELL0.22$145.86
04-07 16:49Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?BUY0.63$231.21
04-07 13:35Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?BUY0.51$497.76
03-31 08:25Named storm forms before hurricane season?SELL0.74$61.42
03-30 12:37Named storm forms before hurricane season?BUY0.67$55.61
03-25 17:26Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?SELL0.58$2.90