TroySimmons7450
0x36b88e8bb80cda741a4a96b12dda510e5d9dac4c
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $201.2k
- Markets traded
- 163
- Open portfolio
- $474.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded163
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.600 | 0.895 | $295.35 | +$97.35 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.125 | $174.63 | −$328.29 |
| Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.790 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$0.84 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.065 | $0.07 | −$0.24 |
| Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$309.32 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.410Will Trump say "Melania" this week? (April 19)
- +$490.62at 0.490Will Harlequins win?
- +$401.54at 0.570Will Trump say "State of the Union" in Corpus Christi on Friday?
- +$353.97at 0.180Will Trump say "Hottest" during National Agriculture Day events?
- +$337.56at 0.640Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 31 be less than 2,000,000?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 14:24 | New pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $51.60 |
| 06-15 14:06 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $243.60 |
| 06-15 13:22 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $473.22 |
| 04-27 10:08 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 04-27 10:07 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 10:06 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 10:04 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 10:03 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 10:01 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $18.00 |
| 04-27 09:59 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 09:58 | Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $31.50 |
| 04-27 07:59 | Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? | SELL | 0.4 | $240.00 |
| 04-23 10:34 | Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $83.52 |
| 04-21 04:10 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.6 | $405.00 |
| 04-13 17:23 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.3 | $202.50 |