Polly67
0x364f1d342b6d895196ab7b6d7399871a647a1515
- Realised P&L
- $-18.8k
- Volume
- $324.7k
- Markets traded
- 132
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded132
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.345Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.265Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.4kat 0.280Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.498Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week?
- +$1.1kat 0.100Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 00:18 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.105 | $253.27 |
| 08-03 14:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $201.80 |
| 04-29 22:22 | Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.16 |
| 04-02 21:03 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $500.00 |
| 04-02 19:34 | Will Iran strike Syria by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019035821 | $100.00 |
| 04-02 19:33 | Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2147020994 | $250.00 |
| 04-02 00:23 | Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.2276453468 | $96.65 |
| 04-01 19:36 | Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.6463675436 | $2.0k |
| 04-01 19:03 | Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.0611565615 | $888.00 |
| 03-23 15:48 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.14 | $45.29 |
| 03-23 04:09 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0097541125 | $100.00 |
| 03-23 04:08 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.0616228944 | $2.0k |
| 03-15 00:34 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.1399999627 | $3.00 |
| 03-13 18:44 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.1299999997 | $412.00 |
| 03-13 18:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.5k |