Mmgp
0x3644050e43f4350fa0af361e88bd0cbed3abdd79
- Realised P&L
- $22.9k
- Volume
- $66.0k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar34.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.612 | 0.860 | $2.5k | +$730.16 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.274 | 0.610 | $1.9k | +$1.0k |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.391 | 0.760 | $1.7k | +$847.27 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.974 | $9.74 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.4kat 0.248Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$423.08at 0.780Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$208.53at 0.770Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$68.39at 0.921Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 23:56 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | SELL | 0.97 | $1.3k |
| 06-01 02:35 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.17 | $1.5k |
| 05-29 14:14 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.3 | $300.00 |
| 05-29 14:12 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.29 | $1.5k |
| 05-29 14:11 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.28 | $29.12 |
| 05-29 14:11 | Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.28 | $287.67 |
| 05-21 07:24 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.974 | $9.74 |
| 05-21 07:23 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2742305892 | $857.20 |
| 05-21 07:22 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3914684667 | $900.00 |
| 05-21 07:22 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6118202353 | $1.8k |
| 12-03 11:24 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7699999998 | $698.13 |
| 12-03 11:19 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.9212498744 | $800.00 |
| 12-03 11:18 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.7799999999 | $1.5k |