moody1899
0x35c6ea0aba21344436c4489027233498128c0b28
- Realised P&L
- $78.43
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $47.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.121 | $20.25 | −$10.73 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.135 | $15.53 | −$5.07 |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.385 | $11.55 | +$1.95 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? · Yes | 0.242 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.24at 0.379Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$26.29at 0.275US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$25.45at 0.440Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$19.09at 0.018Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
- +$15.96at 0.693Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 15:43 | Viktor Orbán arrested by...? | BUY | 0.1499999993 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 12:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.49 | $25.34 |
| 07-14 07:38 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $6.12 |
| 07-10 16:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 08:37 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | BUY | 0.1470007258 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 16:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2899999915 | $15.00 |
| 06-23 19:31 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999895 | $15.00 |
| 06-15 03:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $25.30 |
| 06-14 06:38 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $20.42 |
| 05-31 15:50 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | SELL | 0.7162688064 | $28.56 |
| 05-28 07:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999951 | $15.00 |
| 05-26 19:56 | Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9767170907 | $57.21 |
| 05-26 06:11 | Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $19.94 |
| 05-17 08:31 | Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6999999685 | $20.00 |
| 05-09 11:23 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $45.00 |