permaphrost
0x355436cb12f38b9527d75397504af6a97ad8f07a
- Realised P&L
- $-7.06
- Volume
- $388.73
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $56.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration76.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.973 | $43.24 | +$4.11 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.066 | $9.42 | −$35.43 |
| Will Noah Wyle (The Pitt) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes? · Yes | 0.920 | 1.000 | $2.00 | +$0.16 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.028 | $1.62 | −$5.84 |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.57 |
| Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.02 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.63 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-01 22:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.83 |
| 02-01 22:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.83 |
| 02-01 22:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $0.83 |
| 02-01 22:00 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $9.23 |
| 02-01 22:00 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $9.23 |
| 02-01 22:00 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $9.23 |
| 02-01 22:00 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $9.23 |
| 02-01 21:34 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $3.87 |
| 02-01 17:24 | Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 02-01 15:48 | Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 02-01 00:38 | Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | BUY | 0.032 | $0.06 |
| 01-31 23:05 | Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.50 |
| 01-31 22:56 | Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | BUY | 0.05 | $0.50 |
| 01-31 22:03 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.57 |
| 01-31 21:59 | Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | BUY | 0.0505 | $0.51 |