0x35249282AC891e05E554469e6d45f3b77cf4a0b5-1769865435194
0x35249282ac891e05e554469e6d45f3b77cf4a0b5
- Realised P&L
- $-131.40
- Volume
- $904.88
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $11.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.967 | $11.43 | +$0.31 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.015 | $0.50 | −$0.82 |
| Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.69 |
| Texans vs. Colts · Texans | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.22 |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.93 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Commanders vs. Cowboys · Commanders | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.69at 0.640Senators vs. Rangers
- +$10.39at 0.706Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
- +$6.81at 0.370Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
- +$4.61at 0.684LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
- +$3.93at 0.432Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 17:32 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.9399999391 | $11.12 |
| 10-16 16:25 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.037999999 | $1.32 |
| 09-27 11:21 | Texans vs. Colts | BUY | 0.5299999836 | $13.22 |
| 09-20 17:03 | Commanders vs. Cowboys | BUY | 0.3499999874 | $5.54 |
| 08-31 01:30 | Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.87 |
| 08-20 17:14 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | BUY | 0.8399999552 | $1.50 |
| 07-27 14:17 | Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng | BUY | 0.4199999423 | $2.91 |
| 07-15 06:38 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7729999732 | $4.33 |
| 06-28 10:16 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $2.60 |
| 06-21 13:52 | Will France win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.9099999964 | $10.24 |
| 06-15 03:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7399999909 | $6.47 |
| 06-04 02:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.9659999979 | $12.13 |
| 05-28 05:48 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.7942825725 | $9.25 |
| 05-27 22:12 | Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? | BUY | 0.3799999909 | $11.69 |
| 05-16 21:09 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.9569998516 | $2.36 |