ermanaric
0x34bcf9fc3d277064cbd68613440d342d5b2f5c44
- Realised P&L
- $27.94
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $460.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? · No | 0.987 | 0.977 | $54.68 | −$0.59 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.974 | 0.975 | $53.34 | +$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.984 | 0.984 | $51.71 | +$0.00 |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.964 | 0.953 | $50.41 | −$0.61 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.984 | 0.984 | $50.09 | −$0.03 |
| Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.960 | $48.93 | −$0.99 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.947 | 0.870 | $46.08 | −$4.11 |
| Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? · No | 0.984 | 0.884 | $45.08 | −$5.10 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.945 | 0.847 | $44.89 | −$5.19 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.940 | $15.08 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.08at 0.960Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?
- +$1.66at 0.971Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.48at 0.971Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
- +$1.35at 0.947Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
- +$1.35at 0.974Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 08:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.98 | $21.63 |