bluemario
0x34a1eed3f6bb10dd2f99b79cb4e8ca8749ae7622
- Realised P&L
- $-16.1k
- Volume
- $3.86M
- Markets traded
- 824
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded824
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $915.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · No | 0.923 | 0.880 | $492.67 | −$23.86 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.895 | $475.48 | +$2.66 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.870 | 0.880 | $440.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.825 | $330.00 | +$10.00 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.937 | $171.78 | −$0.55 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.135 | $124.07 | +$4.59 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.730 | 0.805 | $80.50 | +$7.50 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? · No | 0.914 | 0.960 | $19.20 | +$0.92 |
| FK Kudrivka vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.537 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$518.48 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj vs. FC Botoşani: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.317 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.6kat 0.122Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5
- +$9.8kat 0.265Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
- +$8.7kat 0.154Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
- +$8.5kat 0.264France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
- +$6.6kat 0.606Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen: O/U 5.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 18:53 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 08-03 18:53 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 08-03 18:52 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.3 | $36.00 |
| 08-03 18:52 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.3 | $206.10 |
| 08-03 18:32 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.43 | $148.49 |
| 08-03 18:32 | FCSB vs. FCV Farul Constanţa: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.42 | $67.53 |
| 08-03 17:32 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.32 | $247.84 |
| 08-03 17:26 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.29 | $163.85 |
| 08-03 17:26 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.29 | $675.99 |
| 08-03 17:25 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.29 | $935.25 |
| 08-03 17:25 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.28 | $370.58 |
| 08-03 17:15 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.47 | $35.47 |
| 08-03 17:15 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $6.90 |
| 08-03 17:15 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 08-03 17:15 | Halmstads BK vs. IK Sirius: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.46 | $429.64 |