0x34506115e9e0e5d9145410c4db5615fbbd80742e
0x34506115e9e0e5d9145410c4db5615fbbd80742e
- Realised P&L
- $0.04
- Volume
- $165.38
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $4.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.950 | $1.51 | +$0.51 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? · No | 0.720 | 0.870 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.570 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.280 | $0.80 | −$0.20 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.043 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina?
- +$2.54at 0.288SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 30?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 04:36 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:25 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:25 | Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 net interest income be above $1.1B? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 23:43 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $194 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:37 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $193 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 23:32 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:41 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:51 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:25 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:26 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:05 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 11:20 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 03:20 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:21 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $189 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |