0x3413cf01ca5c0b48e23e42db13e41cf18180f858
- Realised P&L
- $1.67
- Volume
- $152.25
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $18.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.615 | $4.92 | +$2.92 |
| Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.460 | $2.79 | +$0.79 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.981 | $2.72 | +$0.72 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · No | 0.230 | 0.295 | $2.57 | +$0.57 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.470 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%? · No | 0.660 | 0.505 | $1.53 | −$0.47 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.210 | 0.105 | $1.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.210 | 0.085 | $0.81 | −$1.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.25at 0.320Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.270Will Trump say "Steel" during Michigan remarks?
- +$2.35at 0.460Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.580Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.13at 0.630Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 23:44 | Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 15:43 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 07:42 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 11:41 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 03:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 19:41 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 11:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 4? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 03:38 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 19:37 | Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 10:23 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:22 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.2819999219 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:04 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:21 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:20 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |