gum123
0x33e27ac64a453337cfcea8345c705a407c573a1b
- Realised P&L
- $22.7k
- Volume
- $2.79M
- Markets traded
- 629
- Open portfolio
- $13.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded629
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.664US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$3.6kat 0.068Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$3.2kat 0.004US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
- +$3.0kat 0.990Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$2.9kat 0.004Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:13 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $9.68 |
| 09-17 21:58 | Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $445.65 |
| 09-17 19:12 | Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 09-17 00:08 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | SELL | 0.98 | $200.90 |
| 09-17 00:03 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | BUY | 0.96 | $172.80 |
| 09-16 18:48 | Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.078 | $9.75 |
| 09-16 18:44 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.9 | $27.59 |
| 09-16 17:38 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.0k |
| 09-16 17:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.0k |
| 09-16 03:13 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $1.6k |
| 09-16 00:16 | Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.70 |
| 09-15 23:57 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $1.2k |
| 09-15 23:49 | Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware? | SELL | 0.8 | $240.00 |
| 09-15 23:35 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.98 |
| 09-15 23:31 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.7k |