raivoe5g
0x33b9b193d90867cf9733456d61fd6c919b0efdcc
- Realised P&L
- $19.83
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $287.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? · No | 0.992 | 0.997 | $99.69 | +$0.50 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.976 | $63.50 | +$0.03 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.997 | $61.66 | +$1.02 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.955 | $60.59 | −$0.32 |
| Brex IPO before 2027? · No | 0.986 | 0.991 | $1.94 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.00at 0.910Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
- +$4.60at 0.930Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
- +$2.30at 0.934Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
- +$0.92at 0.982Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?
- +$0.80at 0.992Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 11:42 | Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.981 | $50.03 |
| 04-16 08:52 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |